The Hormuz Base Oil Shock: A Timeline
The Strait of Hormuz normally carries around a fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade, including base oil cargoes moving out of Gulf refineries with significant Group III capacity. Since the Israel-US-Iran conflict began in late February 2026, that route has gone through closures, partial reopenings, and renewed disputes — while three refineries with meaningful base oil output were hit within days of each other in March. This page tracks the dated sequence of events most relevant to global base oil supply, from the outbreak of the conflict to where things stand today.
Last updated: 6 July 2026. This page is maintained as a reference timeline and will be updated as the situation develops.
Timeline
Conflict begins between Israel, the US and Iran. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted in the days that follow.
The strait normally carries roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade, including base oil cargoes moving out of the Gulf.
Bapco Energies' Sitra refinery in Bahrain is hit. The company declares force majeure across all group operations.
Sitra had completed a USD 7.3 billion modernisation in 2023 that added significant Group III base oil capacity, with over 80% of output normally exported.
The Ruwais industrial complex in the UAE is hit. ADNOC shuts refining operations at the site as a precaution.
Ruwais houses a dedicated base oil plant within an integrated 922,000 b/d complex, one of the largest in the Middle East.
IEA member states agree to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves.
Marks the scale of the broader supply shock moving through global oil markets.
A strike on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City damages one processing train at Shell's Pearl GTL plant.
Pearl GTL produces base oil alongside gasoil and kerosene. Shell estimates roughly a year to repair the damaged train.
Asia-Pacific Group III base oil prices post a fifth consecutive weekly rise, reaching their highest level in more than seven years (Argus Media).
Direct price consequence of the three refinery outages above.
A two-week ceasefire is announced between the US and Iran.
Shipping through Hormuz stays close to a standstill despite the announcement, according to Al Jazeera.
The US imposes a naval blockade on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports.
Adds a second layer of shipping disruption on top of existing restrictions.
Roughly 191 vessels transit the strait for the entire month, against a pre-war average near 3,000 (CNN, citing Kpler data).
Around 6% of normal traffic; refined product shortages reported, particularly in Asia.
The IEA reports cumulative global supply losses exceeding one billion barrels — the largest disruption in its records.
Scale marker for the crisis as a whole.
Five supertankers clear the strait — the first non-Iranian VLCC transits since the closure began.
First concrete sign of a physical thaw in shipping.
The US and Iran sign a memorandum of understanding. The US lifts its naval blockade; Kuwait's KPC lifts force majeure on its own operations.
Beginning of a refinery-by-refinery supply-side recovery.
Shipping remains well below pre-war volumes. Bloomberg reports seafarers on some vessels still waiting to sail out of the Gulf after more than 100 days.
The practical recovery continues to lag the diplomatic headlines.
What hasn't recovered yet
Diplomatic progress and physical recovery are running on different clocks. The June memorandum eased the blockade dispute, but the refinery damage from March is repaired on its own timeline regardless of shipping status. Shell's roughly one-year estimate for the damaged Pearl GTL train points to that capacity staying offline into 2027. Bapco's force majeure covers all group operations at Sitra, including its Group III export business, and nothing in the public record so far confirms when normal export volumes resume. For buyers, that distinction matters more than the shipping headlines: a reopened strait does not automatically mean the same suppliers can deliver the same volumes they did before March.
For further reading
For the price impact this sequence had on Group III base oil specifically, see Why Group III Base Oil Prices Hit a Seven-Year High. For how global base oil trade flows reshuffled in response, see Where Is the World's Base Oil Coming From Now?.
Frequently Asked Questions
When did the 2026 conflict affecting base oil supply begin?
The Israel-US-Iran conflict began on 28 February 2026. Disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz followed within days.
Which base oil-relevant refineries were hit during the conflict?
Three facilities with meaningful base oil output were hit within a ten-day window in March 2026: Bapco's Sitra refinery in Bahrain (9 March), the Ruwais complex in the UAE (10 March), and Shell's Pearl GTL plant in Qatar (18 March).
Has the Strait of Hormuz reopened?
Partially. A US-Iran memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 eased the blockade dispute and shipping has resumed to some degree, but Bloomberg reported as recently as early July that traffic remains well below pre-war levels.
Is base oil supply back to normal now that shipping has resumed?
Not fully. Refinery repair timelines run separately from the shipping dispute. Shell's own estimate for its damaged Pearl GTL train is around a year, pointing to that capacity remaining offline into 2027 regardless of the shipping situation.
Sources
Argus Media; Reuters; Bloomberg; Al Jazeera; CNN; Shell Global newsroom; QatarEnergy; Bapco Energies / Fuels and Lubes Asia; International Energy Agency.
Qualify a second base oil origin before the next disruption
Sanyang Petroleum supplies Malaysian-origin base oils into Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Middle East, with full quality documentation and ATIGA Form D where applicable.